Pembroke Pines, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS62 KMFL 031453
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
953 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Cold and dry air advection continues across South Florida this
morning as a breezy northerly wind flow remains in place. The deep
layer dry air mass is evident on the 12Z KMFL sounding as PWAT
values came in at 0.60 inches. High temperatures this afternoon
will struggle to rebound as they will only rise into the upper 60s
along and north of Alligator Alley. High temperatures will rise
into the lower 70s south of Alligator Alley as well as the east
coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Expansive eastern CONUS troughing (quite the stubborn -NAO regime)
prevails this morning ushering in a refreshing and cool air mass
across South Florida as northerly peninsular drainage flow
filters in anti cyclonically courtesy of ridging centered over the
southeastern United States. As has been mentioned in previous
AFD`s, the relatively potent shortwave currently over the
southeastern United States remains quite amplified in nature. This
synoptic support has and will continue to influence stout surface
ridging across the southeastern United States. Both the NAEFS and
the ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate that the surface ridge
will be in the 99th percentile (or nearing record strength) for
this time of year. So when you combine the amplified trough, crisp
dry air, and surface ridging positioned in a favorable location,
it leads to a period of well below average temperatures across the
region. ECMWF`s Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) depicts TMAX and
TMIN values anomalous to climatological values for this time of
year across South Florida both today and on Wednesday.

The abundance of dry air aloft will suppress any rain chances (and
much in the form of clouds) today and once again on Wednesday.
With the onset of diurnal processes, the mixing height will
gradually increase during the afternoon hours which will usher in
some of the colder air aloft to the surface allowing for cool
conditions to prevail even with ample SoFlo sunshine. The
combination of dry continental air (abnormally dry dewpoints in
the 30s and 40s) and the continued northerly breeze will
definitely make it feel seasonal over the next two days, both
during the day and overnight.

Breezy northerly peninsular flow will usher in continued cold air
advection (CAA) across the region with the coldest temps and
feels-like temps being observed to the west of Lake Okeechobee each
morning. For this morning, forecast minimum temperatures will drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s west of Lake Okeechobee, middle to
upper 40s across our Gulf coast metro areas with temperatures in
the low to mid 50s possible across most east coast metro locales.
However with that brisk northerly wind, apparent (feels-like)
temperature values in the mid to upper 30s will be possible west of
Lake O, low to mid 40s across the Gulf coast metro areas, and the
upper 40s to low 50s across most of the east coast metro area.

The coldest night will be tonight into Wednesday morning when winds
remain slightly elevated and the coldest air arrives. Expect actual
temperatures to range from the upper 30s to low 40s across interior
Hendry and Glades counties, up to the low 50s along the east coast
metros. The bigger story will be the apparent (feels-like)
temperatures, with wind chills most likely feeling like 50 along the
east coast metros and the mid 30s across the interior of Hendry,
Glades, and Collier counties. Once again, a reasonable coldest case
scenario could have wind chills feeling like the mid to upper 40s
along the east coast, and near freezing across interior Hendry and
Glades counties (note that the actual temperatures will remain well
above freezing at all times).

After a long summer with heat indices in the 100s, this may finally
be the time to break out your scarves and indulge in a hot chocolate
if you so wish to partake!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

With the previous 500mb shortwave/lobe of troughing advecting
eastward into the western Atlantic waters by late Wednesday, the
subtropical jet-stream will take a more zonal (west to east)
orientation across the region. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate the
next short-wave/lobe remaining a little further north, keeping the
best dynamics closer to its trajectory over the Great Lakes,
northeastern United States, and mid-Atlantic. Synoptic changes
aloft dictate what occurs at the surface and the anomalous heights
(strong surface high pressure) currently over the southeastern
United States will advect offshore into the western Atlantic as
well. This subtle but key move will switch our prevailing surface
flow from a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction.
Albeit light during the second half of the week, this wind shift
will begin to moderate the air mass over South Florida. Expect a
gradual climb in both low and high temperatures as the week
progresses as well as a gradual moistening of dew points across
the region.

The aforementioned further north shortwave will also have a surface
signal in the form of an area of low pressure that transits the
northeastern United States. This low will also drag an associated
surface frontal boundary southeastward across the United States,
bringing a reinforcing shot of dry air and cool weather. The GEFS/EPS
both depict this boundary reaching Central Florida by the end of the
week, however both solutions diverge on the southward propagation and
resolution of temperatures behind this frontal passage. A quicker
transit of surface high pressure over the southeastern United States
due to further-removed synoptic forcing may result in a shorter period
of peninsular drainage flow which would not be conducive in bringing
colder temperatures all the way down the peninsula into South Florida.
Instead a faster transit of surface high pressure into the western
Atlantic waters would result in winds veering to a northeasterly
direction and moderating the air mass via passage over the (still)
relatively warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream just to the east
of South Florida. As has been the norm with the previous frontal
boundary passages, residual dry air and a lack of synoptic forcing
directly ahead will result in a mainly dry approach and passage of
the frontal boundary across the area late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northerly winds will increase around 15z and will range between
10 and 15 kts through the afternoon hours. These winds could gust
up to 20 kts especially in the afternoon. Winds will gradually
diminish across all terminals this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A continued pressure gradient thanks to continued high pressure
will allow for continued northerly winds across all waters. The
combination of northerly winds of 20+ knots and the Gulfstream
will result in waves continuing to meet advisory thresholds in the
Atlantic waters through Wednesday morning. Wind and seas will
calm beyond mid-week, with a low-end chance of reaching cautionary
levels again this weekend ahead of the next frontal boundary.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for Atlantic beaches
through Wednesday evening. Surf heights along the Atlantic coast
will peak around 2 to 3 feet, with breakers as high as 4 feet from
time to time. A gradual reduction in surf height will occur by
Thursday as winds begin to relax across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

High pressure over the TN valley today will result in northerly
winds that will continue to pull down abnormally dry air into
South FL. Min RH values this afternoon will be in the low to
middle 20 percent range over much of the area. While the
Significant Fire Potential will be low, and 20 ft winds are
expected to be less than 15 mph, these low RH values combined with
continued dry conditions may result in enhanced fire wx concerns
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  54  73  61 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     73  50  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        72  52  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        73  49  74  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  51  72  62 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  53  72  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   73  52  75  60 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  51  72  59 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       71  50  74  60 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           68  45  72  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC